Benefitting from the economic rebound, banks are expected to report a healthy bottom-line and asset quality profile in the quarter ended March 2023 (Q4FY23). The net profit of listed commercial banks is projected to grow by an average 43.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4FY23 amid better net interest margins (NIMs) and declining credit costs. This is based on a combined assessment of analyst estimates for 17 banks on Bloomberg database.
What will be its impact on the banks's balance sheets? Since banks need to provide for 10 per cent of the loans restructured, they would need Rs 50,000 crores to Rs 80,000 crore for this purpose, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Banks have to be braver, willing to take more risks and give confidence to the customer,' observes Joydeep Ghosh.
He said the SBI data showed that there is a rise in NPAs due to the coronavirus crisis but it is manageable as people have been cautious about increasing their liabilities especially in the retail, agriculture and MSME sectors.
For a borrower, who has serviced his loan without missing any repayment, the banks will be willing to take over the loan, give a top-up, and would offer lower interest rates, says Tinesh Bhasin.
The protocol aims to "democratise" lending, reduce costs of credit, and ensure accessibility of credit to small companies and street vendors, according to Nandan Nilekani.
Banks are set to sell dud-loans worth Rs 90,000 crore of 22 firms in the first tranche to the National Asset Reconstruction Company (NARCL). It's reason for cheer given that such sales to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) have been poor in recent times. In fiscal 2020, their assets under management (AUM) contracted by 4 per cent; and in fiscal 2021, it fell by another 100 basis points to Rs 1.07 trillion. So, why are we where we are?
PSB chiefs tried to argue that liquidity is in surplus in the system and the problem was related to lack of demand in the economy, instead of banks' reluctance to lend, but 'the FM said it is a perception issue that loan is not available, which we need to dispel,', reports Somesh Jha.
'Maharashtra is virtually in a debt trap.'
The eighth Budget of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman continued to focus on 'GYAN' (Garib, Youth, Annadata, Nari) to maintain a consistent and coherent strategy initiated over the years in pursuing the government's vision for Viksit Bharat. The approach, characterised by incremental yet impactful steps, aims to create a compounding effect over time.
Stressed MSME borrowers would be eligible for restructuring of debt, if their accounts were classified standard.
'The stabilisation of interest rates followed by reduction is going to happen over the next year.'
The Supreme Court has refused to interfere with the government and RBI's loan moratorium policy, and declined to extend the six-month loan moratorium period.
The NDA government will be following the footsteps of its predecessor, the UPA, which had introduced the concept of "loan mela" to boost credit by directing banks to lend to people through public meetings.
The major beneficiaries of loan recasting will be sub-Rs 500 crore corporate exposures and retail exposures, which were earlier expected to see the highest increase in NPAs in percentage terms.
The bosses of SBI, Union Bank and Central Bank have been driving down to their offices everyday to take stock of the biggest loan drive ever undertaken for MSMEs, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Record liquidity infusion by the central bank in the banking system during the financial year 2020-21 amid sluggish economic activity resulted in banks investing more in safe government papers than in extending loans, data from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. This trend has not been seen in nearly two decades, barring 2016 - the year of demonetisation.
Bank credit growth declined to 8.5 per cent in January from 13.5 per cent in the year-ago period.
Gross bad loans of banks may rise from 6.9 per cent in September 2021 to 8.1-9.5 per cent by September 2022 if the Omicron variant strikes the economy hard, as per the financial stability report of the Reserve Bank released on Wednesday. The report also said that the rising stress level in the retail loan portfolio of banks -- the mainstay of bank credit for many years now -- was led by home loans, which grew in double-digits so far this fiscal. While asset quality improved, with gross non-performing assets (GNPA) and net NPA (NNPA) ratios declining to 6.9 and 2.3 per cent, respectively, in September 2021, the slippage ratio inched up during the same period as private sector banks showed a higher rate of deterioration in asset quality, as per the report.
Private lender Tamilnad Mercantile Bank's (TMB) is planning an Initial Public Offering ( IPO) of about Rs 1,000 crore by November-December 2021. The IPO will involve combination of fresh capital plus sale of existing shares. The shareholders of the unlisted South-based private bank have already given nod for IPO.
'The finance minister said, the MSME is the backbone of the economy. My question is, what have you done for the sector?'
While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
Linking all new floating rate loans to an external benchmark won't impact existing borrowers, so customers who have taken long-term home loans recently should watch things carefully, say Joydeep Ghosh and Sanjay Kumar Singh.
The sector seems set for a rally that may be somewhat temporary.
'We have already sanctioned loans worth over Rs 3,000 crore to around 120,000 customers.'
The Reserve Bank is planning to extend wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) for transactions for interbank borrowing or call money market, sources said on Tuesday. The pilot in the wholesale segment, known as the Digital Rupee -Wholesale (e-W), was launched on November 1, 2022, with the use case being limited to the settlement of secondary market transactions in government securities. "RBI is now planning to go into the interbank borrowing market.
Krishnamurthy Subramanian listed land, labour, law, and liquidity as the key areas of big reforms.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
The Minister said the department is yet to calculate the exact interest-free loans to be provided to the industry.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das will hold a meeting with CEOs of public sector banks on Wednesday to discuss issues concerning slow deposit growth and sustainability of high credit demand. As per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, deposits rose by 9.6 per cent as compared to 10.2 per cent on a year-on-year basis, while credit offtake witnessed a jump of 17.9 per cent as against 6.5 per cent a year ago. According to an agenda circulated for the meeting, sources said, sustainability, including pricing and slow growth of deposits, would be discussed.
Shifting to floating rate deposits can work as an anaesthetic gel for some customers, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The approval for provisioning of Rs 20,000 crore as subordinate debt to provide equity support will benefit 2 lakh stressed MSMEs.
The central bank tweaked the retail inflation range to 4.8-4.9 per cent in the first half of 2018-19, and 4.7 per cent in the second half.
All real estate developers may not be able to avail the benefit of Reserve Bank of India's one-time restructuring scheme as they might not meet the required financial ratios and have the necessary credit rating, HDFC vice chairman and CEO Keki Mistry said. He was speaking at a real estate and infrastructure investor summit organised by Naredco. "Restructuring may not necessarily help every developer because not too many will be able to meet the criteria laid down in terms of meeting the various ratios and getting credit ratings," Mistry said.
The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved additional funding of up to Rs 3 lakh crore at a concessional rate of 9.25 per cent through the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for the MSME sector hit hard by the coronavirus crisis. The ECLGS was the second-biggest component of Rs 21 lakh crore comprehensive package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week.
The finance minister has emphasised on the quick disbursal of additional loans to MSMEs, to simplify process, formats and documentation.
'We have 750 districts across the country, and each district can create one cluster like Tirupur on any product of their choice.' 'This way, we can even have $3 trillion in exports.'
'Infusion of fresh capital, handsome growth in deposits and focus on recovery should bring Yes Bank back on the growth path in the next financial year,' observes Tamal Bandyopodhyay.
Jaitley slams Rajan for MSME banking crisis statement, says postmortem is easier than action
'Till now, we were under tremendous stress. The economy was not recovering, the financial cycle was not moving and the banks were not supporting.' 'With the government pumping in money to the banks and asking the NBFCs to give priority to the MSME sector, there will be a revival.'
